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标题: 看看媒体是怎么样歪曲央行行长Graeme Wheeler 的表态 [打印本页]

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2013-10-4 09:23:16 标题: 看看媒体是怎么样歪曲央行行长Graeme Wheeler 的表态

先不说，直接上文章：

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler explains his reasoning for introducing 'speed limits' on high loan-to-value lendingPosted in Property October 3, 2013 - 08:32am, Graeme Wheeler

Graeme Wheeler, Governor of the RBNZ

By Graeme Wheeler
Many New Zealanders consider purchasing a house to be a rock solid investment, and assume that house prices will continue to rise steadily, having never seen a bear market or experienced rapid rises in mortgage rates.
Over the past 25 years, however, many wealthy countries have experienced periods of substantial decline in house prices.
Falling house prices erode homeowners’ equity, while mortgage lenders experience losses on their loan portfolios.
The resulting stress in the financial system can have long lasting adverse effects on the economy.

For borrowers, it can mean years of spending cut-backs to rebuild savings.
The greatest impact is on borrowers, often first-home buyers, who recently entered the market with the least equity. In the United States, real net household wealth for the median household fell 39 percent from 2007 to 2010, and a quarter of America’s mortgage holders owed more on their houses than what their houses were worth.
Our concern is that excessive increases in house prices in parts of the country, if unchecked, pose increasing risk for the financial system and the broader economy.

High and rising house prices increase the risk and potential impact of a major correction in house prices, and consequential loss to lenders.
In a severe downturn, such losses would be expected to significantly reduce banks’ willingness to lend. Similar views about the risks from our overvalued housing market are expressed by the IMF, OECD, and the major international credit rating agencies.
New Zealand’s house prices are expensive, based on international comparisons of house prices relative to rents and to levels of household income. And our household debt levels relative to disposable income – having doubled over the past two decades – are also very high.
Could New Zealand experience a sharp fall in house prices? While not anticipated, our economy is not immune to such risks. The world economy still faces major challenges and, if global growth slows markedly, or if China’s financial system experiences major difficulties, it would quickly feed into the New Zealand economy and housing market.
Prices rising rapidly
House prices are rising rapidly in Auckland and Christchurch for two reasons: housing shortages and easy credit. It is critical that issues around land availability, zoning restrictions and high building costs are resolved and that the housing targets in the Auckland Accord are achieved. It is also important that credit expansion is restrained to be more in line with housing supply. Restricting lending to borrowers with low deposits can help reduce the upward pressure on house prices, especially as banks have been competing aggressively for borrowers with low deposits – with this borrowing accounting for 30 percent of new mortgage lending.
Some suggest that loan-to-value restrictions should be applied regionally, especially around Auckland, or that we should exempt buyers of lower-priced houses. We considered both options. However, regional restrictions would be hard to administer and would shift housing pressures outside wherever the boundary is drawn. Exempting low-priced housing would be a recipe for rapid increases in the cost of such housing. Broad exemptions to other groups such as first home buyers would substantially undermine the effectiveness of the restrictions in reducing house price inflation.
Many countries with LVR limits
While new for New Zealand, such restrictions have been introduced in 25 countries, and are currently being deployed in Canada, Israel, Korea, Norway, Singapore, and Sweden. Most countries adopting such restrictions prohibit high loan-to-value lending. We have opted for a more flexible approach, which still allows banks to do some high loan-to-value lending. Nor should such moves be seen as permanent. Restrictions will be removed when there is a better balance in the housing market and less risk that their removal will reignite high house price inflation.
While the Reserve Bank’s mandate is to promote financial stability, there are clear implications here for housing affordability. Over the next two years interest rates are likely to rise in order to restrain an expected increase in broader inflation pressures. We currently expect that the official cash rate could increase by 2 percent from 2014 to the beginning of 2016. This could result in interest rates on first mortgages of 7-8 percent. If the loan-to-value speed limit is unable to slow house price inflation, larger increases in the official cash rate would be required.
Supply is still key
We are keen to see house price inflation moderate significantly and, in doing so, reduce the risks to the financial sector and the broader economy. Speed limits on low deposit lending are designed to help achieve this. Loan-to-value restrictions are expected to give the Reserve Bank more flexibility as to when and how quickly we have to raise interest rates, but the more fundamental solution to reducing pressure in the housing market lies in addressing the issues around housing supply.

我再贴一下NZ历史贷款利率图标

不知道电视媒体这个贷款利率明年就到8% 是怎么来的？

但是我们可以100%断定RBNZ不会，也不敢这样做。原因如下：

1。ORC提高到4.5%，存款利息到7%。美国和日本还没进入加息周期，现在贷款利率分别为1.25%和0.5% 。直接导致CARRY TRADE，什么意思呢？就是投行和国际大型公司，在日本，美国贷款，把钱存入NZ的银行里，获取利息差；或者买NZ股票，NZ 股票分红一直很高，年息是6-8%；或者直接进入PROPERTY MARKET，平均年增长7-8%。

2。外汇市场大幅度动荡，NZD可以走出历史最牛的上扬行情，因为CARRY TRADE。

3。这种暴力的上涨贷款利息，无论是房屋贷款人，还是商业贷款人，都无法承受，直接伤害到实体经济。对房屋贷款来说，每周要多给银行利息，无法承受，导致HOUSEHOLD收入中其他支出大幅度下跌，对整个经济来看，大众是不敢消费，节衣缩食去还贷款，后果就是通货紧缩。这个大幅度调整利率的行为，和央行控制通货膨胀率在1-3%的目标相违背。你这是把通货膨胀直接打入通货紧缩，即CPI为 -2 - 0% 之间，会导致长时间经济衰退。

4。分配不公。只是AKL和CHCH二个城市的房价上涨，为什么要全民买单。还有很多小城市房价下跌的很厉害，年跌率10%以上，这是要毁灭它们吗？

5。海外资本和热钱大量流入，继续推高房价，人家根本不贷款，直接EQUITY交易走了。贷款的都是本地大众，最后买单的是全体NEW ZEALANDERS。

作者: purpleapple 时间: 2013-10-4 09:32:14

虽然不懂经济，但是觉得评论里也很多不和逻辑的地方，感觉作者以为经济是按他的想法运转？热钱流入股市流入房市因为能赚到钱，那么既然上市公司还能够大幅分红就说明经济还好否则用什么来分红？反过来说如果进入了通缩，上市公司效益不好用什么来吸引热钱投资？再者热钱涌入，房市继续上扬，觉得负担不起房贷的屋主卖屋换取资本增长好了，为什么非得和银行抗着？如果多数屋主都抛售又怎么会来因为利息上扬而造成的通缩？矛盾的地方太多，好像nz屋主都傻逼着，热钱自由来去，本地屋主都不敢买也不敢卖？我认识不少nz本土的投资人，白人毛利人都有，nz本地人是有一部分傻逼小混混买不起房，但是买的起的那拨儿也不傻。

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2013-10-4 09:34:12

本帖最后由剑客浪心于 2013-10-4 09:38 编辑

purpleapple 发表于 2013-10-4 09:32
虽然不懂经济，但是觉得评论里也很多不和逻辑的地方，感觉作者以为经济是按他的想法运转？热钱流入股市流入 ...

GDP = INVESTMENT + CONSUMPTION + (EXPORT - IMPORT) + GOVERNMENT SPENDING

NZ很多上市公司增长为0，也保持4-6%的分红，企业文化。

作者: AUGUSTUS 时间: 2013-10-4 09:37:07

之前讀書的時候，看到這類文字和圖表我就頭疼，現在更疼得厲害，可能真的“年紀大，機器壞”。。。

作者: JJ-Creative 时间: 2013-10-4 10:17:46

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