2024-6-17 21:11:16 上传
下载附件 (71.47 KB)
The annualised rate of 371 corporate insolvencies was the highest since 2013. Eaqub said the rate of court-administered insolvencies was running at about 35 a month, similar to during the Global Financial Crisis.
"This recession is extremely unusual," Eaqub said. "Normally you see job losses, real incomes being hit but profits by and large go sideways.
"This time we are seeing an absolute plunge in business profits. In absolute terms, I haven't seen this in any of my data going back to the early 2000s. We are just at the beginning of the recession in many ways."
Because of immigration and other factors in the aftermath of the pandemic, the recession had not started biting until the last six months.
Employers had so far cut back on capital expenditure and hiring, and were wearing the downturn via reduced profits, he said.
"We haven't seen the pain of businesses actually cutting back on spending - it's been postponement so far, rather than running out of money.
"That's why we're not seeing a decline in enterprise counts yet - but now businesses are running out of cash, that's what the profit margins are telling us.
"May to November is when we will probably see the worst of the economic downturn. Not only have businesses been hit hard by profit reduction but costs are still high and we should expect demand to slow further."
Many households would be refixing mortgages over the next year, and that would mean further reductions in spending, he said.
"If you look at retail spending per capita, the recession is already looking pretty impressive."
The Reserve Bank, compared to other central banks, was less tolerant to inflation risk and more tolerant of recession, job loss and business failure, he said.
图片附件: Screenshot 2024-06-17 201035.jpg (2024-6-17 21:11:16, 71.47 KB) / 下载次数 5
图片附件: 1718612071886502.jpeg (2024-6-17 21:15:00, 446.15 KB) / 下载次数 6
图片附件: 1718659750861530.jpeg (2024-6-18 10:29:21, 165.25 KB) / 下载次数 8
Quad 发表于 2024-6-18 08:24
2000 网络泡沫年 比 2008年金融危机 还差吗？
Quad 发表于 2024-6-25 10:26
2000年网络泡沫以后 怎么样？ 现在怎么样？
| 欢迎光临 新西兰天维网社区 (http://bbs.skytrade.co.nz/) | Powered by Discuz! X2 |
