房价是不是有可能变了

误入

最近这个房价的讨论火了，政府谈，民间谈，谁都谈！
现在政府开始开始动手了，大家怎么看？
刚看到NZ herald 的一个访谈，from Property commentator Alistair Helm

Hi Alistair, we've just put up a story that says NZ property is overvalued by 25 pc, what are your thoughts about the current state of the NZ property sector? Over valued?
by Business [url=]May 15 at 12:02 PM[/url]


I think there is a danger that property prices have become overheated. I always remember the words of Warren Buffet saying (paraphrasing)  when the newspapers are full of property stories about how hot the market is - it has probably peaked. I think we are close to or over the peak

http://properazzi.co.nz/insights/

NewLynnHse

听说还能再涨个两三年呢，不知道是不是真的

walker123

want some comments from experts.

lizapan

参考国内的调控 朋友就是以为调控会跌 没有早点买房子 结果越来越贵

蓝山小野猫商铺

其实房子涨和跌的根源。。。

还是供与求的问题。。。

现在是供不应求。。。

如果能出台一个政策让大家都消除买房的念头 房价自然下跌。。。

如果房地产一旦陷入低迷。。。

经济链就会出现问题。。。

所以现在新西兰政府处于要把房价下下去 但是又不完全打压 房价低了点 又开始鼓励。。。

这样子你说怎么可能跌的下去。。。

预算案又拿公屋来说事儿。。。

如果重新审理公屋申请资格的话。。。

有一部分可能申请资格不合格的也要投身买房子的行列 或者租房子的行列。。。

这也变相增加了投资房或者廉价房的需求。。。

一样抬高房价。。。

到时候真是破房烂房一样有市场。。。

pinpointer

政府有抑制房价的意愿，但是不会采取过激的措施，因为现在经济的复苏与房价有莫大的关系，这是一种博弈。政府只能采取调整利率和增加房屋供应的办法，这些都是软措施。真正要打压炒房，只能通过收印花和增值税，但目前政府不愿意也不敢这么做。
马上冬天就到了，加上即将来临的利率调整，房价将会进入相对平稳的缓和阶段，而好房子的屋主将继续捂盘。某些等不住的炒房者会考虑套现，所以房市会继续呈现繁荣的表象，但不会有很多好盘出售。
但是，房价是绝不会跌的，更远远谈不上什么崩盘。

蓝蓝的海

pinpointer 发表于 2013-5-17 10:55
政府有抑制房价的意愿，但是不会采取过激的措施，因为现在经济的复苏与房价有莫大的关系，这是一种博弈。政 ...

totally agree......

bungyjumping999

you can't stopped people from making noise when 45% of people are not house owners.

They are the pressure group, pressing gov't to do something ( capital gain tax, stop deducting interest as tax expenses , stop foreign buyers etc etc).

Labour and green parties will want to use this opportunity to lure this 45% of people, add more oil into the fire, make it even more heated, they want more votes from this group of people for their political advantage.

If labour and green can form gov't, they will punish property investors big time for pleasing this 45% of people. By punishing these investors, might create another problem? who knows.

Remember : " killing all the sparrow to increase more rice production, might end up inviting all the inserts to eat all the rice production in the field"

蓝蓝的海

我也觉的就算跌也不可能大跌,也就是不涨了而已...

NewLynnHse

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/busine ... p;objectid=10884244

Small NZ banks on notice over housing risk - S&P

Standard & Poor's, the global credit rating agency, has put eight local banks on notice over the rising risk of a housing bubble bursting in New Zealand.
............

talkaboutvision

NewLynnHse 发表于 2013-5-17 11:23
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10884244

Small NZ banks on no ...

hoho 这下银行有压力了~~~

没有宽松的信贷就不会有猛增的房价

sunxu77

pinpointer 发表于 2013-5-17 10:55
政府有抑制房价的意愿，但是不会采取过激的措施，因为现在经济的复苏与房价有莫大的关系，这是一种博弈。政 ...

没有崩盘?请看美国底特律

NewLynnHse

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ ... likely-to-fall-fast

House prices unlikely to fall fast

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens says Auckland house prices are unlikely to be forced down in the short run by the Government's moves to speed up consent processes for new houses.
...............

yax

有钱的早买了，没钱的再过３，５年也还是买不起，还有就是那些手里有点小钱的，想高高不上去，破房破区还不甘心去的。所以现在６０万－８０万房子最抢手，真的要是上了百万的房子真的是没怎么大长，至少没有张的那么离谱。

John.G

大家都在谈主要还是炒房子的人多。。。。 如果要调控就得先把炒房子的给赶走。。。 那房价才有可能下调 但是卖不上价谁还拿出来卖呢?除非是被逼得没法还贷了mortgage sale..

bungyjumping999

sunxu77 发表于 2013-5-17 11:48
没有崩盘?请看美国底特律

get ready your cash, if auckland become 底特律 , you will be able to buy at a basement price.

" the warehouse, the warehouse, where everyone gets a bargain"

阿海

Detroit从以前1百70万人变成现在的70万人，走了1百万人，当然房价会暴跌啊。

要奥克兰走同一条路，那请来个9级地震吧，保证会有大批人走，但能不能到100万人走，估计不可能。

走能去哪？


还有就是政府控制，政府是不愿意房价跌的，他们只希望房价别上升那么快而已。

Labour + Greens, 怕什么啊，别投票给他们这群SX就行了啊。

Preferred Priminister Poll:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10878947

John Key遥遥领先，下次大选还是National当选。

喜马拉雅大山猫

sunxu77 发表于 2013-5-17 11:48
没有崩盘?请看美国底特律

先去好好了解下底特律是怎么崩盘的再来发帖
而且2个根本没有可比性，奥克兰在新西兰如同悉尼在澳大利亚，纽约在美国，奥克兰都崩了新西兰也就没戏了

awesome.possum

lz shud have read the whole Q&A of his

Hi Alistair, we've just put up a story that says NZ property is overvalued by 25 pc, what are your thoughts about the current state of the NZ property sector? Over valued?
by Business May 15 at 12:02 PM
I think there is a danger that property prices have become overheated. I always remember the words of Warren Buffet saying (paraphrasing) when the newspapers are full of property stories about how hot the market is - it has probably peaked. I think we are close to or over the peak
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:04 PM
When the bubble pops, who is it going to hurt most - homeowners, real estate professionals, or the banks?
by Tulip Mania May 15 at 12:05 PM
I think the banks have been very prudent in regard to lending and the recent controls by Reserve Bank is a follow up. Real estate agents are like any sales team - they will respond to the scale of the market. Buyers who stretch themselves or speculate too much will be the ones hurt
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:06 PM
what is your advice to young people trying to purchase a first house? Get on the property ladder before its unaffordable to leave NZ and earn higher wages elsewhere?
by nathan May 15 at 12:06 PM
I think the question needs to be to 1st time buyers is - are you ready to commit to the mortgage, can you see yourself growing in your career and increasing your income and not taking on lief-changing events in the forseeable future - if so - then get a mortgage and buy a property you know that someone else is certain to want to buy !
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:09 PM
Alistair - do you think that the residential real estate industry, with the help of the Herald, which heavily relies on its advertising revenue, pump the heat of the market with the constant flow of very high individual sale prices, with a view of deliberately distorting peoples view of the market and encourage listings
by Pat May 15 at 12:09 PM
Good question and here am I on the Herald answering the question! I don't think that the Herald more than any other media organisation seeks out stories that sells newspapers (or more relevant these days attracts views online) to sell advertising. Yes the Herald relies on a large advertising spend by real estate agents but they as all media do walk a delicate line between the commercial and editorial side of the business. Look we all like to see how prices are doing - we are all guilty of a lot of Property gazing!
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:12 PM
listening to the radio, I'm constantly hearing adverts for property investment companies that are promoting people to leverage and buy investment properties saying there is no risk. Seems to be like multi level marketing there, any thoughts?
by nathan May 15 at 12:12 PM
I am in complete agreement. The other day I was so tempted to attend one of these events just to see how they present their offering. In my mind it is clear that if these people could earn more money investing in property then they would not waste their time doing presentation. The old adage is so teu when applied to these training seminar / scheme - too good to be true, certainly seems to be - steer clear is my advice.
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:15 PM
What do you think the likelyhood is that the Urban and Rural Urban boundaries could be removed? (It seems they must have been introduced after a thorough thought process, so removing them would be counterproductive)
by David B May 15 at 12:15 PM
I cannot see that happening. Two reasons, firstly we need to have this demarkation for the city of Auckland to become a great place to live and to cope with the growing population. Secondly and far more pragmatically the Council hate doing u-turns - they are politicians!
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:16 PM
Are investors the true housing issue in Auckland?
by Paz May 15 at 12:17 PM
If that question is better phrased (no criticism) has there been a rise in property investors driving the Auckland property market then YES! I wish there were facts to back this up but the view I hold is that this is the case - they have been speculating in the key suburbs that have seen the greatest activity and price appreciation over the past 2 years. The smart ones are now out of the market, happy with their portfolio.
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:19 PM
Would an ORC rise of say 0.5% have any substantial impact on house prices?
by MRAuckland May 15 at 12:19 PM
Short answer no! - if we were to see a global economic issue which signalled a future rise of up to 3% then yes. The medium term looks like more of the same - low rates
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:20 PM
This so called bubble is driven by an under supply there for why stop it if this is truly the market doing what the free market should?
by Chris May 15 at 12:20 PM
The property market is often thought of a free market, in some ways it is and in some it is not. The key is messaging - in a true free market there is freedom and ease of information to attract suppliers to the market based on demand signals. In the property market the suppliers (vendors) are not responsive to the demand trends and this creates significant lagg in the market - the analogy of a piece or elastic - this is why we have booms and busts and we are likely to continue to see them
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:23 PM
Alistair, we have readers across NZ and around the world, so let's have a look outside Auckland for a minute - are values increasing to the same extent as seen north of the Bombay Hills ? What is the property scene looking like in the smaller centres around New Zealand?
by Business May 15 at 12:23 PM
The NZ property market is a classic two speed market with Akl and Chc driving ahead due to their unique circumstances. The other ares are in differing states. For the Taranaki is flush with listings and is a buyers market as is a lot of the South Island. In these smaller regions property sales are picking up to in some ways catch up from very low levels through 2009 to 2011.
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:26 PM
Do you think a capital gains tax should be introduced?
by Jesse May 15 at 12:26 PM
Aaah - I hate these questions! - there are many reasons why it would be a good thing, however there is no proof that it would in anyway reduce the volatility in the property market. It has been hijacked by Politicians who want a meaty piece of tax reform to wave around. Like any tax it would be something that people would adjust to over time
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:28 PM
Why is the government not introducing regulations to curb the seemingly unlimited numbers of foreign investors buying in Auckland and pushing prices to the highest (relative to income) in the OECD?
by OverseasKiwi May 15 at 12:29 PM
If this question is solely about why the government is not doing something, then the answer is --- they don't see any political value in addressing it without sending a signal that NZ is not an open economy that embraces inward investment. Is it a good thing? - that is another question which was the subject of comment discussion on Properazzi a while ago properazzi.co.nz
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:31 PM
On that topic Alistair, what are your thoughts about the percentage of homes being sold to foreign resident buyers? there are no reliable stats, but do you think it is high, particularly in Auckland.
by Business May 15 at 12:33 PM
I wish there were stats that would allow us to discuss this rationally. The BNZ REINZ survey came out with a figure of 9% which astounded me and I am very doubtful of. I think as ever with these things (i) it is truly hard to define where the buyer is foreign buyer and (ii) these issues tend to be over represented in stories. Having said that we are a very attractive market for overseas buyers and in global terms our property is cheap - the recent Herald article highlighted this
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:36 PM
There is a lot of publicity about the need for Auckland to build 100,000 homes in the next 8 to 10 years. (A) Do you believe that this demand number is true? (B) If so, do you still believe that there is danger that the market is overheated given that the supply factors (construction/consent numbers) are lagging behind?
by David B May 15 at 12:36 PM
The question as to whether the demand is there is a really good point. I noticed the Akl council website shapeAuckland stressed this week that their plan is to facilitate the potential to build the houses for this million new residents, not to say we will create a new million extra residents. We have a lot of catching up to do to build enough houses to meet the current demand, there does seem a genuine move to get things moving at central and local government, but building doesn't happen overnight
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:40 PM
Given the council's unitary plan are there particular suburbs in AKL that you'd recommend people buy into or conversely not buy into?
by Curious May 15 at 12:40 PM
That is really too big a question as Auckland is so huge. If you want my advice and I am not a property investor or speculator - go into the detail. The council have released very detailed street maps of all the suburbs and streets of Auckland, these show where zoning changes will impact and where new developments can be built in multi-level. Do the research and you could be buying well for the future development of Auckland
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:43 PM
In the recent past NZ hasn't seen a true bubble burst causing values to drop dramatically. If capital gains won't cause it, foreign investor pull-out doesn't look likely. So do you foresee anything that would/could cause it?
by simcmanus May 15 at 12:43 PM
Good question and it stumped me for a minute. To be honest I cannot - we are a very small country and given the greater mobility of this world why would people not want to live in this beautiful country - save only for a natural disaster (god forbid!)
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:45 PM
So are you saying that the market IS overpriced for NZ? It's a small country with not a lot of space that isn't being used
by Antony May 15 at 12:45 PM
As seen from a global perspective prices are realistic, when you compare to incomes domestically then they are overvalued. The problem is in some ways an income issue which in someways leads to an investment issue ( we should invest in business to grow our real wealth, rather than property). Having said that you have this type of chat in UK, Aus ,US and the same view is expressed - its part of the global property conundrum!
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:48 PM
There are an awful lot of property stats published each month Alistair, sometimes showing different things. Which stats would you recommend readers take seriously when it comes to working out what property prices are really doing?
by Business May 15 at 12:48 PM
That seems a like a question easily answered by a lengthy blog post I wrote last week (sorry for the blatant plug) "Making sense of the monthly property statistics properazzi.co.nz
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:50 PM
Hi Alistair - At the moment asset allowances for rest home subsidies favour those who have all their money wrapped up in their homes. Do you think the government should encourage older peeps to sell their big family homes and downsize without losing their eligibility for rest home subsides? The present policy does seem to encourage people to build palaces over having financial assets. The knock on effect is higher property prices...meaning young peeps find it harder to buy houses.
by Bill May 15 at 12:50 PM
There is a lot of discussion on this issue of the baby boomer generation locking up assets and thereby creating an unsustainable situation for the following generation. I respect the views expounded by Bernard Hickey on a regular basis on this issue. I tend to think these type of issue sort themselves out by allow the time to pass and the inheritance to flow which it will - I do concede though I am not that well versed in this issue!
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:54 PM
If Govt were to take steps to make housing affordable on NZ wages, what would you suggest?
by Antony May 15 at 12:54 PM
I don't believe it can be done unless you want to create a state controlled economy. If we value our trading place in the world with global leaders like Fonterra we cannot conceive of building barriers which would achieve the outcomes you seek but would damage our global reputation as an open economy and send up plummeting back 30 years economically, actually more like 45 years!
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:56 PM
What do you consider to be a reasonable level of mortgage servicing as a proportion of household income for a homeowner?
by Nathan May 15 at 12:57 PM
I think banks are great advisors to this with their lending criteria. I think though % can be dangerous, you need to do a household cash analysis - what costs are fixed, what are variable (the "we could live without" ) - assess what balance you need to allow for emergencies and see what is left from after tax income, that is the best guide.
by alistairhelm May 15 at 12:59 PM

What's your opinion on the seismic assessment and upgrading of existing structures would impact on the property price?
by people May 15 at 12:59 PM
If property has to be upgraded then due to the regulatory requirement the property will be judged to be of greater appeal than one not upgraded. This approach will govern prices
by alistairhelm May 15 at 1:00 PM

jarod_2003

the problem with NZ is over borrow....

too much use of leverage increases investoers risks.

Automation

有人从前在QV工作，是专业的评估师。国内和本地都是本科学这行的。
90年代末吧，国内的房子亏了卖掉技术移民过来。
我认识他的时候2003年。那时候，报纸上各大银行一直在唱衰房市。评估师本人也认可，等等等没有买房。
从买房的角度看，他自己承认计不如人。
从人生的角度看，因为没有房子没有根，最后他们一家都离开纽西兰另谋高就，过得挺好的。
他给过我一个小软件，看贷款买房的成本等。看了真是很打击人的，房贷简直就是极致高利贷。所以，专家不敢买。
结果大妈买了，纽西兰的房价上去了，国内的房子翻倍了，还就行了。

专家的立场太专业，不是从民生的角度出发。对普通百姓的决定没有太多参考性。

John.G

Automation 发表于 2013-5-17 12:30
有人从前在QV工作，是专业的评估师。国内和本地都是本科学这行的。
90年代末吧，国内的房子亏了卖掉技术移 ...

说贷款买房是高利贷 一点不夸张，如果按照首付10%-20% 供30年算，基本利息就等于甚至高于购买的房价。。。问题是除了银行 谁能贷给你那么多钱还贷那么久呢。。。

阿海

Alistair Helm以前是Realestate.co.nz的CEO，看他Linkedin的背景好像只是做媒体的，那跟Bernard Hickey是一个档次 - 没有投资房只是在网上吹牛。

Business.govt.nz 上看到只有一个人叫Alistair James Laurent Helm的，也只在Grey Lynn上有个自住房。

Automation

John.G 发表于 2013-5-17 12:37
说贷款买房是高利贷 一点不夸张，如果按照首付10%-20% 供30年算，基本利息就等于甚至高于购买的房价。。。 ...

不错，贷款买房基本上就是双倍的钱。但是该买还得买。

Lease

阿海 发表于 2013-5-17 12:43
Alistair Helm以前是Realestate.co.nz的CEO，看他Linkedin的背景好像只是做媒体的，那跟Bernard Hickey是一 ...

He was ex-CEO of Realestate.co.nz.

阿海

Lease 发表于 2013-5-17 12:59
He was ex-CEO of Realestate.co.nz.

看起来越来越像Bernard Hickey了。

quad5

walker123 发表于 2013-5-17 10:43
want some comments from experts.

sometimes , the experts r bull shit.

quad5

talkaboutvision 发表于 2013-5-17 11:44
hoho 这下银行有压力了~~~

没有宽松的信贷就不会有猛增的房价

恩， 就是这样。 银行收紧， 不贷款还涨个JB。 什么供求关系， 什么这个，那个利率。 银行为了赚钱， 管你。。。

quad5

jarod_2003 发表于 2013-5-17 12:30
the problem with NZ is over borrow....

too much use of leverage increases investoers risks.

tht is true.

bungyjumping999

Automation 发表于 2013-5-17 12:30
有人从前在QV工作，是专业的评估师。国内和本地都是本科学这行的。
90年代末吧，国内的房子亏了卖掉技术移 ...

there are 2 types of people who don't make money

1) know too much
2) know too little.

i have seen some professionals who are too knowledgeable and hold strong money sense in properties investment that they are still renting.  

Like the guy who appears at budget 2013 (with john campbell at 2pm), he sounded so negative about the budget, my take is, if you chose to live in auckland, swim with the tide, not against the tide.