日本核危机到底多严重 (英文转贴)

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During the course of the week I have become increasingly disappointed with the media coverage here in New Zealand and amongst much of the world’s English speaking media about the risk posed by the emergency occurring at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations – little of it is fact based, it is increasingly taking the form of a docu-drama with a mixture of fact, ill-informed non-expert opinion and a fair dose of fiction.  The scientific evidence from the experts at the International Atomic Energy Authority, the New Zealand National Radiation Laboratory and the equivalent authorities in Australia, Britain and the USA is actually surprisingly consistent. These information sources combined with the informal information we have accessed from Tokyo University and other experts continues to reinforce that the situation is completely safe for our staff resident in Tokyo and our visiting crews who are more than 200kms away from the nuclear power stations.

Let me share with you a summary of the comments made yesterday by the Chief Science Advisor to the British Government – Sir John Beddington – the full transcript is available from the British Embassy (Japan) website; http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/cont ... -comment-transcript

Sir John was joined by a number of qualified nuclear experts based in the UK for the briefing and their assessment of the current situation in Japan is as follows:

•        In case of a 'reasonable worst case scenario' (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 miles (50km) would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples' health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.

•        The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided. A further large quake with tsunami could lead to the suspension of the current cooling operations, leading to the reasonable worst case scenario described above.

•        The bottom line is that these experts do not see there being a possibility of a health problem for residents in Tokyo. The radiation levels would need to be hundreds of times higher than current to cause the possibility for health issues, and that, in their opinion, is not going to happen.

•        The experts do not consider the wind direction to be material. They say Tokyo is too far away to be materially affected.

•        If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved after ten days, as the reactors' cores cool down.

•        Information being provided by Japanese authorities is being independently monitored by a number of organizations and is deemed to be accurate, as far as measures of radioactivity levels are concerned.

•        This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control. Even with Chernobyl, an exclusion zone of 30 miles would have been adequate to protect human health. The problem was that most people became sick from eating contaminated food, crops, milk and water in the region for years afterward, as no attempt was made to measure radioactivity levels in the food supply at that time, or warn people of the dangers. The secrecy over the Chernobyl explosion is in contrast to the very public coverage of the Fukushima crisis.


And here is a further update from the United States Ambassador in Japan to US Citizens on Wednesday morning New Zealand time.

Today our hearts remain with our Japanese friends who, after suffering this devastating tragedy just four days ago, have to undertake recovery and reconstruction and address the ongoing nuclear emergency.

We understand that many of you are anxious and have questions in the shadow of the Fukushima emergency, since we are in the midst of a complex, constantly changing, and unpredictable situation.  In this fluid situation, our commitment to our citizens is to accumulate accurate information and assess it sufficiently in order to make important judgments.

Since the first reports of trouble with the reactors, American nuclear experts have worked around the clock to analyze data, monitor developments, and provide clear assessments on the potential dangers.  While at times we have had only limited access to information, I am personally committed to assuring that our experts have as much access and information as possible, and the necessary resources to understand the situation.  I have personally been deeply engaged in these efforts.

After a careful analysis of data, radiation levels, and damage assessments of all units at Fukushima, our experts are in agreement with the response and measures taken by Japanese technicians, including their recommended 20kms radius for evacuation and additional shelter-in-place recommendations out to 30kms.

Let me also address reports of very low levels of radiation outside the evacuation area detected by U.S. and Japanese sensitive instrumentation.  This bears very careful monitoring, which we are doing.  If we assess that the radiation poses a threat to public health, we will share that information and provide relevant guidance immediately.

The United States will continue to work around the clock to provide precise and up-to-date information supported by expert analysis to ensure the safety and security of our citizens and to help Japan in its time of great need.  U.S. citizens in need of emergency assistance should send an e-mail to [email protected] with detailed information about their location and contact information, and monitor the U.S. Department of State website at travel.state.gov.

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