小心. Reserve Bank 开始打压房价了

guncritx

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8646447/House-prices-increasing-risk-in-financial-system

neowing

银行对海外的房产投资者本来就要求30%~35%的首付，一般出租收入的资金流都是正数的，就算调整LVR后影响貌似也不大，不过这部分是少数.

有钱就是硬道理。

crazymouse

貌似95%在没有贷过 还有就是 能贷95%的。。。。价格大概都是50W以下 而50W以上的 也没啥影响吧

bungyjumping999

John.G 发表于 2013-5-9 08:01
要想打压房价就必须牺牲一批投资客 对投资客第二套及以上直接要求50%的LVR房价肯定跌

banks are not owned by reserved banks, they are private lending institutions with view of making profit.
All reserved bank can do is asking for memo of understanding, as an understanding, it is more like persuading, pleading to banks, don't lend too much, please  don't be too aggressive, don't walk too fast, slow down a bit kind of things.

quad5

John.G 发表于 2013-5-9 08:01
要想打压房价就必须牺牲一批投资客 对投资客第二套及以上直接要求50%的LVR房价肯定跌

yea, fare eough

John.G

要想打压房价就必须牺牲一批投资客 对投资客第二套及以上直接要求50%的LVR房价肯定跌

guncritx

Annie911 发表于 2013-5-8 17:28
提高LVR要求，对首次买家提高了入场门槛，逼这些人继续租房，相当于给租房市场加了一把火；对很多已经有房子 ...

LVR可以应用在投资者或refinance上。NZRB已经參考外国的LVR应用方式。比如说加拿大，RefinanceLVR必须80。很多国家第一间房可以加高LVR，但第二间需要80，第三间要70等等。如果質金夠充足,应该没问题。我已经開始凖備質金在我的小投質房上，以備銀行要我加注来滿足新的LVR要求。

这要看NZRB要打压到那程度上。

xpd2000

参考国内，越调越涨

guncritx

From RBNZ:

The Reserve Bank has consulted on four tools
it has identified as being helpful in addressing one or
both of the above objectives: adjustments to the core
funding ratio; a counter-cyclical capital buffer; sectoral
capital requirements; and loan-to-value ratio (LVR)
restrictions for residential mortgages.
......

Much of the focus in the submissions was on the
use of LVR restrictions. Key concerns were around
the potential adverse effects such restrictions could
have on first-home buyers, small businesses, and the
Canterbury rebuild. Some submitters suggested that
LVR restrictions could best be applied with exemptions
for some borrowers or targeted at particular regions
where high-LVR lending was more prevalent



LVR) restrictions, but with different features to suit
the circumstances of their respective economies. For
example, maximum LVR ratios of 85 percent were
introduced in Norway and Sweden while in Israel,
where high-LVR lending is less prevalent, LVR ratios
were capped at 75 percent for first-time buyers and
50 percent for investors. In Canada, the Government
plays a dominant role in insuring mortgages and the
policy response involved a tightening of the conditions
required to qualify for this insurance. This included
a reduction in the allowable LVR to 80 percent for
mortgage refinancing or for investment properties, and a
reduction in the maximum allowable mortgage term to 25
years. Switzerland has taken a different approach with
the recent announcement of a macro-prudential capital
buffer applying to banks’ housing exposures



source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/finstab/fsreport/fsr_may13_a.pdf
            http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/finstab/fsreport/fsr_may13_b.pdf

winny

Milan28

除非像国内那样来个限制购房，控制海外投资者购房。

FANGX09

删除删除删除

可爱的小猪猪

看好了，，，就买，，，觉得值得的话。但是还是慢慢看。。不急了。

ALTEZZA104

Annie911 发表于 2013-5-8 17:28
提高LVR要求，对首次买家提高了入场门槛，逼这些人继续租房，相当于给租房市场加了一把火；对很多已经有房子 ...

楼上的这个对潜在的情况的分析很透彻啊

Annie911

提高LVR要求，对首次买家提高了入场门槛，逼这些人继续租房，相当于给租房市场加了一把火；对很多已经有房子的投资者来说影响不大，因为他们的房子大都已经增值，而且随着时间的推移，一直在增值，LVR通常会越来越好。所以银行担心的不是什么LVR，真正卡住投资客不能再借钱投资的瓶颈，不是LVR，而是Cash Flow。租房市场火起来，租金上涨，可以帮助房东提高现金流，让他们继续可以跟银行借钱买投资房。

所以说仅仅靠提高LVR来打压房价，只能把首次购房者还有那些过分敏感的菜鸟吓跑，让他们连汤还没来得及喝一口就歇菜，而正在吃肉的投资客，可以吃得更欢。

个人意见，不构成投资建议。

Lease

利率这东西真不好说, 澳洲一降息, 这里就蠢蠢欲动好象也要降息. 但如果过两天美国加息了, 那就完全又是另外一派景象了.

所以我的策略是把一个贷款分成几个(Split Loan), 长短结合的组合自己的贷款.

bungyjumping999

FANGX09 发表于 2013-5-8 14:57
那汇率如果降，更多人不就可以买房？那房价不是更涨？

this up trend will continue for 2-3 yrs, low interest, short supply  -------> auckland

1095days

bungyjumping999 发表于 2013-5-8 13:24
australia reserve bank reduce offical interest rate and suprise the market  due to slowing down of c ...

Truely agree!!!

FANGX09

那汇率如果降，更多人不就可以买房？那房价不是更涨？

阿海

Lease 发表于 2013-5-8 14:39
It's unlikely NZ this time will follow AUS footprint, given the fact NZ big picture is better than ...

至少RBNZ想升OCR都难，还是降的几率高很多。

bungyjumping999

Lease 发表于 2013-5-8 14:39
It's unlikely NZ this time will follow AUS footprint, given the fact NZ big picture is better than ...

yes, talking down means use less hostile language about interest rate....

that is to say they won't physically lower the interest rate but will give hints to maintain the low interest regime as at present.

jarod_2003

bungyjumping999 发表于 2013-5-8 14:28
haha....

This intervention is like a small drop of water in the ocean, in 2 - 3 days time, the  ...

then but nzd now if you so confident and seel in 2 or 3 days time

Lease

bungyjumping999 发表于 2013-5-8 14:28
haha....

This intervention is like a small drop of water in the ocean, in 2 - 3 days time, the  ...

It's unlikely NZ this time will follow AUS footprint, given the fact NZ big picture is better than AUS.

As China economy is cooling down and it need less resources from AUS, that makes AUS economy struggle. But China consumer goods demand remain high, especially demand for safe & clean food products, and NZ can meet such demand.

Therefore my guess is AUS interest rate goes down but won't happen here.

bungyjumping999

guncritx 发表于 2013-5-8 13:44
来了

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10882325

haha....

This intervention is like a small drop of water in the ocean, in 2 - 3 days time, the currency will go even higher.

NZ reserve bank had done it before , and bank of japan had done it before, it won't work. See what will happen in 2-3 days time. They will talk down the interest.... that is my guess.

guncritx

bungyjumping999 发表于 2013-5-8 13:24
australia reserve bank reduce offical interest rate and suprise the market  due to slowing down of c ...

来了

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/busine ... p;objectid=10882325

蓝山小野猫商铺

ALTEZZA104 发表于 2013-5-8 13:28
基本同意小野猫的观点，现在的现状，就是，还没有买到房子的人感到疲倦和恐慌，为了能让这种感觉消失，很 ...

太认同了。。。

握爪握爪。。。

ALTEZZA104

蓝山小野猫商铺 发表于 2013-5-8 12:52
当然调政策的人已经预估了他手头上的房子不会受影响了。。。

而且对于奥克兰来说相对影响会少点的啦。 ...

基本同意小野猫的观点，现在的现状，就是，还没有买到房子的人感到疲倦和恐慌，为了能让这种感觉消失，很多人提高了买房的预算和降低了对房子的要求

bungyjumping999

australia reserve bank reduce offical interest rate and suprise the market  due to slowing down of china economy.

Nz dollars against australia dollars is hitting high today....

This will get NZ reserve bank worries, they should consider decrease the interest, not increase !!!!!


My take is they will be rethinking the ball game now, don't talk something too hostile about interest rate, otherwise nz dollars is going to the roof.  They might give hint they are going to reduce interest rate, next announcement.

蓝山小野猫商铺

其实如果政府有心压制房价。。。

就先提高利率。。。

然后再提高LVR。。。

那么房价彻底没欲望了。。。

现在利率持续走低。。。

提高LVR。。。

这不是一边叫美女脱衣服。。。

一边叫你不要动么？？？

你说你不动的限制怎么能抵得过美女脱衣服的诱惑呢。。。

肯定卯足了劲挣脱然后抱的美人归嘛。。。

Robbi

lvr要求高了的话，很多first home buyer要延后买房，因为首付不够。
那租房市场又热了。现在持房的投资者等着收钱偷笑。
再次，低价房的需求短期可能会降温，中长期来看，需求并没有减少，相反，因为首次置业者因为经历了更长时间来积累首付，买房的时候更加emotional了。这个对房价只有抬高的影响。
所以，奥克兰房价还是会震荡中上扬。

个人意见，仅供参考。和银行政策及立场无关。
欢迎大家讨论