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标题: 欠债76亿，新西兰政府史上最大债务清偿迫在眉睫。。。。。。 [打印本页]

作者: 混口饭 时间: 2011-7-15 02:35:01 标题: 欠债76亿，新西兰政府史上最大债务清偿迫在眉睫。。。。。。

新西兰政府将于11月正式清偿其债务款项，总金额高达76亿纽元，为有史以来金额最高记录，目前政府正积极筹备款项来以按时清偿债务。

　　有消息透露，上月政府借款共计199亿纽元，比需要偿还的149亿纽元现金赤字款项多出50亿纽元。

　　新西兰电台（Radio New Zealand）依据《官方信息法》（Official Information Act）披露，根据5月3日公布的财政部报告，预计11月15日政府债券到期时，政府将支付债券持有人共计约76亿纽元。

　　财政部表示，这是有史以来金额最高的一次债务清偿，且将存在很大风险。如何实现此次债务清偿的具体方案已明确，财政部拥有足够的现金储备足以支付此次债务，但政府财政状况仍存在不稳定因素，需要每日监测。

　　财政部长Bill English上月透露，政府已开始逐步减少每周借款速度，目前为每周借款3.8亿纽元，高于之前声称的每周借款3亿纽元。

　　English先生表示，目前受益于利率优势，总的借款需求并未发生变化。

　　他同时表示，从本月开始计算，未来三年内平均每周借款额将减少至1亿纽元。

　　财政部报告同时显示，政府将在之后4年内保持平均每周2.7亿纽元的借款水平，包括今年已借款项。

作者: 泡椒猴头_ 时间: 2011-7-15 02:42:36

那现在政策还这么严的

作者: virus 时间: 2011-7-15 02:55:00

Sovereigns Ratings List

Entity                   Domestic Rating          Foreign Rating       T&C Assessment

New Zealand             AAA                                        AA+                         AAA

Ratings Across Various Sectors In New Zealand Are Unaffected By Government's Housing-Support Package
Publication date: 24-Jun-2011 14:53:20 AEST

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

View Analyst Contact Information
MELBOURNE (Standard & Poor's) June 24, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today that the New Zealand government's announced support
package for residential home owners who have been most affected by the
Christchurch earthquakes has broadly no rating impact across the banking,
insurance, infrastructure, and government sectors. This is because the
estimated cost of between NZ$485 million and NZ$635 million to the New Zealand
government to purchase the circa 5,000 properties currently in the residential
red zone appears to be met from the government's already fully provisioned
NZ$5.5 billion Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Fund.

For financial institutions, we view the package as being supportive to
affected borrowers, as it mitigates the adverse financial impact of
property-value decline and the more limited prospects that badly affected
Christchurch home owners faced in recouping value from their properties (see
below).

For insurers, the result is close to neutral, with the government assuming the
existing ability of policyholders to claim on property insurance. However,
uncertainty remains around the ultimate cost to the insurance sector, given
continued seismic activity, a lack of access to and capacity for claims
assessment, and the division of exposures between insurers, reinsurers, and
the Earthquake Commission (see below).

With this fluidity in exposure and ongoing incidence of natural disasters,
Standard & Poor's continues to actively monitor all sectors in the region.

BACKGROUND

On June 23, 2011, the New Zealand government announced a package for domestic
property holders in the most earthquake-affected areas of greater
Christchurch. The government has, with the assistance of geotechnical
engineers, divided the Christchurch area into four residential zones: red,
orange, green, and white. People who owned property with insurance in the
residential red zones (the most affected by the Christchurch earthquakes,
totalling about 5,000 properties) on Sept. 3, 2010, have been offered two
options: 1) the Crown makes an offer of purchase for the entire property at
current rating value (less any built property insurance payments already
made), and assumes all the insurance claims other than contents; or 2) the
Crown makes an offer of purchase for the land only, and homeowners can
continue to deal with their own insurer about their homes.

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

We expect that the announced support package for the red zone qualifiers will,
on balance, mitigate the financial impact of this natural disaster on
financial institutions, with lending exposures to borrowers covered by the
assistance package. Critical to the support package is news that the offers
will be based on council rate valuations set in 2007. The downward pressure on
property prices in the past few years suggests that people taking up the
government's offer should be reasonably placed to settle borrowing obligations
that are tied to the purchase of these properties.

This said, Standard & Poor's expects that credit losses could, nonetheless, be
realized by some borrowers even if they are covered by the support package.
New Zealand's financial institutions continue to be supportive of affected
borrowers with respect to repayment holidays and subsidized funding with
regard to affected homeowners wanting to relocate. This support is, however,
not expected to materially detract from the financial performance of
individual financial institutions.

The Christchurch earthquake itself has not, to this point, resulted in any
specific rating action on any rated financial intuitions in New Zealand.
Standard & Poor's continues to monitor financial institutions with lending
exposures in the Christchurch area, particularly those with exposures in areas
not covered by the announced package.

INSURANCE

The announcement will provide some comfort to policy holders, with many able
to realize value in their property insurance earlier. This will not likely
pose any greater liability or exposure on the insurance sector, with the
government effectively assuming the existing claiming rights of policyholders.
We would, however, expect that some mediation and negotiation is available,
which could possibly reduce the ultimate claims and expense cost for insurers.
The environment for the primary insurance sector and the New Zealand
Earthquake Commission (EQC; AAA/Stable) remains uncertain, however, due to the
complexity involved in claims assessment and processing as a result of the
continued high level of seismic activity in the region. Issues contributing to
the uncertainty of determining the financial impact of each event include a
lack of access to the site to assess damage, the division between new and
existing damage, and the application of EQC cover for additional events in
some circumstances.

The EQC and insurers, via the Insurance Council of New Zealand (ICNZ), have
agreed to approach the Wellington High Court to make a ruling on the complex
question of under what circumstances the EQC insurance is restated back to its
full limits after natural disaster damage. Neither the EQC or the ICNZ have
disclosed the number of claims that fall under the case, although the EQC has
stated that there is only a small number of situations whereby it is uncertain
as to whether the EQC will provide a further NZ$100,000 to cover a second
event. The impact on individual insurers is likely to be determined by
specific policy reinstatement terms that will vary across providers. There is
some noise from market participants suggesting the decision will impact a
larger number of cases than the "small number" indicated by the EQC.

In our view, the EQC is likely to continue to have capacity to meet potential
obligations. Total estimated net costs of the September and February
earthquakes are around the NZ$3 billion mark, compared to a fund balance of
NZ$6.5 billion prior to September. Net costs have been capped by the NZ$1.5
billion Maximum Event Retention (MER) under relevant reinsurance policies,
although some risk of exposure in excess of reinsurance protection remains. In
the event of exhausting the current fund, the ECQ has the legislated ability
to call on government resources. We believe the primary insurance sector was
mindful in reinstating reinsurance protection of subsequent events after the
February earthquakes, with the most recent events expected to be covered under
those programs.

SOVEREIGN

While there are no estimates of additional costs to the sovereign (including
on the central government's share of local government infrastructure, roads,
insurance excesses on schools and hospitals, temporary housing, and other
policy responses) from the latest earthquake, we do not expect them to be
significant. This reflects our understanding that the additional damage was
mostly to households and structures already affected by the earlier quakes,
and that repair costs are likely to be met by the government's already fully
provisioned NZ$5.5 billion Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Fund.

New Zealand's 'AA+' foreign currency rating is currently on a negative
outlook, reflecting the possibility of a downgrade if New Zealand's external
position does not improve.

LOCAL COUNCIL

The ratings on Christchurch City Council (Christchurch) continue to be
supported by our expectation of on-going support in the recovery and
rebuilding process from the New Zealand government. Christchurch is
forecasting an operating deficit in fiscal 2010-2011 and the subsequent three
financial years. This is primarily due to lower revenue from rates, parking,
and dividends from its subsidiaries. We remain of the view that Christchurch
has some flexibility to take on additional debt at the current rating level,
and consider that it remains too early to assess the impact of the recurring
earthquakes on the local economy and any permanent impact on the council's
finances.

INFRASTRUCTURE

We view the medium-term impact of the tremors on international passenger
demand into Christchurch International Airport Ltd. (CIAL) as remaining
uncertain. This is particularly so as historically around 60% of passengers in
and out of the airport have been related to the leisure market, which in our
view, is more susceptible to changes in demand patterns. Specifically, until
aftershock frequency reduces, we believe that leisure group travelers--who
tend to plan their travel arrangements well in advance--are likely to redirect
their travel from the region, which could potentially result in a lagged
recovery. The negative outlook continues to reflect the uncertainty
surrounding:

The attractiveness of Christchurch as a travel destination and the
consequent impact on international passenger numbers through the airport; The ability of CIAL to continue to support domestic passenger levels over
the medium term; and The airport's ability to retain and attract key airline partners in the
medium term to support its route development. (see Bulletin dated March
16, 2011.)
The 'A-' long-term corporate credit rating on CIAL continues to reflect our
opinion that there is a "moderately high" likelihood that the New Zealand
airport's 75% shareholder, Christchurch City Holdings Ltd. (CCHL;
AA+/Negative/A-1+)–a wholly owned subsidiary of Christchurch City Council
--would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to the airport in
the event of financial distress to ensure the timely repayment of the group's
financial obligations. Going forward, our analysis will continue to focus on
not only CIAL's medium-term competitive position and financial profile, but
also the level of ongoing support from its owners.

作者: virus 时间: 2011-7-15 02:57:31

China (People's Republic of) AA- AA- AA-

作者: virus 时间: 2011-7-15 02:58:07

What do the letter ratings mean?

The general meaning of our credit rating opinions is summarized below.
‘AAA’—Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
‘AA’—Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments.
‘A’—Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances.
‘BBB’—Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions.
‘BBB-‘—Considered lowest investment grade by market participants.
‘BB+’—Considered highest speculative grade by market participants.
‘BB’—Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
‘B’—More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments.
‘CCC’—Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments.
‘CC’—Currently highly vulnerable.
‘C’—Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances.
‘D’—Payment default on financial commitments.

Note: Ratings from ‘AA’ to ‘CCC’ may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories.

作者: yoshi_ 时间: 2011-7-15 03:03:54

提示: 作者被禁止或删除内容自动屏蔽

作者: virus 时间: 2011-7-15 03:08:47

本帖最后由 virus 于 2011-7-15 02:13 编辑

Sovereigns Ratings List

世界各国主权债务风险及偿还能力评估

Entity                                                          Domestic Rating                               Foreign Rating                                  T&C Assessment

New Zealand                                                             AAA                                                 AA+                                                    AAA

United Kingdom (Unsolicited Ratings)                         AAA                                     AAA                                                    AAA

United States of America                                              AAA                                        AAA                                                 AAA

China (People's Republic of)                                     AA-                                              AA-                                                 AA-

Australia (Commonwealth of)                                     AAA                                           AAA                                                    AAA

Brazil (Federative Republic of)                                     BBB+                                           BBB-                                                 BBB+

Canada                                                                   AAA                                                 AAA                                           AAA

Russian Federation                                  BBB+                   BBB                                           BBB

Japan                                     AA-                         AA-                                  AAA

Korea (Republic of)                   A+                A                                  AA-

Germany (Federal Republic of)                AAA       AAA                   AAA

Vietnam (Socialist Republic of)                BB    BB                   BB

Taiwan (Unsolicited Ratings)             AA-                AA-                AA+

Thailand (Kingdom of)                   A-       BB+                         A

作者: 失猫隐居 时间: 2011-7-15 04:43:02

我决定投资新西兰50个亿纽币~

作者: 小亮 时间: 2011-7-15 04:46:14

我决定投资新西兰50个亿纽币~
失猫隐居发表于 2011-7-15 03:43

你别拿找我借的钱打了水漂。

作者: 剑客浪心 时间: 2011-7-15 10:21:23

没这样夸张，长期借款接上就行

作者: plot 时间: 2011-7-15 10:27:28

Sovereigns Ratings List

世界各国主权债务风险及偿还能力评估

Entity Domestic Rating Foreign Rating ...
virus 发表于 2011-7-15 02:08

中国现在还有主权债务？而且评级还是AA-？？
我一直以为中国是大债主，从美国、欧盟买了无数国债，还大手笔援助朝鲜、苏丹、缅甸等等亚非拉国家。
中国人在加拿大、澳洲、美国买了无数顶级豪宅。
全世界人民都要靠made in China的商品来生活。
中国哪里会有债务？只有别人借中国的钱，哪来中国借别人的？

作者: 南岛乌云 时间: 2011-7-15 11:38:22

中国的Domestic Rating说不清, 但是Foreign Rating应该4个A比美国高才对嘛, 丫欠我们那么多钱

作者: vassell 时间: 2011-7-15 14:33:01

债台高筑汇率还那么牛逼，服了

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