“Despite having fallen on a trade-weighted basis since May 2013, the exchange rate remains high. A lower rate would reduce headwinds for the tradables sector and support export industries. Fiscal consolidation will weigh on aggregate demand over the projection horizon.
“CPI inflation has been very low over the past year, partly reflecting the high New Zealand dollar and strong international and domestic competition. However, inflation is expected to rise towards the mid-point of the 1 to 3 percent target band as growth strengthens over the coming year.
“OCR increases will likely be required next year. The extent and timing of the rise in policy rates will depend largely on the degree to which the momentum in the housing market and construction sector spills over into broader demand and inflation pressures. We expect to keep the OCR unchanged in 2013.”作者: 老Q 时间: 2013-10-4 13:24:57
