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标题: 今后12个月哪个区的房价会领涨？ [打印本页]
作者: zjren1997    时间: 2013-10-18 15:44:51     标题: 今后12个月哪个区的房价会领涨？

本帖最后由 zjren1997 于 2013-10-18 14:45 编辑

Barfoot and Thompson 2013年10份公布的数据，外行看热闹，内行看门道。请大家根据下表，说一下自己的想法。我先抛砖引玉，说一说自己的看法。

1，投资回报最好的区域是Kingsland和Avondale，预示着这两个区的房价在未来12个月内要领涨于其它区域。

2，Epsom、Mt Eden等中心区域的房价已经涨上去了，估计要在高位稳定一段时间，短时期内不会有太大的涨幅。

3，平均来说，现在奥克兰市的房价是年租金的30倍（周租金的1500倍），而一般来说，合理的房价应该是年租金的20倍（或周租金的1000倍）。由此看来，奥克兰市现在的房价有点泡沫，Epsom、Mt Eden等核心区域的泡沫尤其明显。

4，房价在房租平稳的情况下高涨，说明这一轮房价上涨不是需求推动，而是成本推动。理由是，如果是需求推动，房价和房租应该一起上涨。房租不涨，说明需求稳定。房价在需求稳定的情况下上涨，合理的解释是包括土地、建材、工人工资等几个方面的建房成本上涨。

Suburbprice (3 bdrm)ren/w (3 bdrm)Gross yield
Avondale  - Auckland$491,349$4234.48%
Blockhouse  Bay$653,649$4363.47%
Epsom$1,287,114$5962.41%
Greenlane$835,580$5333.31%
Grey  Lynn$1,069,800$6223.02%
Herne  Bay$2,625,714$7611.51%
Hillsborough  - Auckland City$792,577$4522.97%
Kingsland$529,500$5245.15%
Lynfield$623,269$4153.46%
Mt  Albert$738,866$4623.25%
Mt Eden$939,279$6083.37%
Mt  Roskill$656,711$4343.44%
New  Windsor$595,500$4383.83%
One Tree  Hill$718,067$5153.73%
Onehunga$630,229$4773.93%
Ponsonby$1,163,571$7193.21%
Royal  Oak$818,563$4953.15%
Sandringham$844,548$4852.99%
Three  Kings$870,278$5093.04%
Westmere  - Auckland$1,173,925$6572.91%   
平均

3.33%

作者: NewLynnHse    时间: 2013-10-18 15:49:15

中区？
作者: klwss    时间: 2013-10-18 16:00:51

土地成本上漲不是需求增長的反映麼？而且租金增長本應滯後些的。另外，許多本來不往外租的房子買賣后會投向租房市場。比如，老房子貸款早已還清，新高價買入的人會修繕整理后租出。而很多買家買入高價房的信心來源於可以以租養房，也是對需求的信心。
作者: zoedeng517    时间: 2013-10-18 16:22:43

貌似只有中区啊~
作者: blackandwhite    时间: 2013-10-18 17:32:55

MT Roskill and GI
作者: crazymouse    时间: 2013-10-18 17:39:29

咋说呢 奥克兰 不知道其他城市是不是这样 房租的主要决定因素是 房间数 而 房价的房租加成一直不高 可能这是一个原因？百万豪宅 真拿市场出租 大部分也就1000多 本身百万豪宅房间数也多 所以奥克兰投资者 很喜欢 公寓 盒子屋 ？
作者: icy-han    时间: 2013-10-18 20:54:07

Kingsland均价怎么可能才53万，你从哪里来的数据
作者: zjren1997    时间: 2013-10-18 22:27:00

icy-han 发表于 2013-10-18 19:54
Kingsland均价怎么可能才53万，你从哪里来的数据

请看帖子第一句话
作者: winny    时间: 2013-10-18 22:54:47

New Lynn?
作者: ﹍蕝蝂尐丫頭＂    时间: 2013-10-19 15:34:04

北岸、哈哈哈
作者: icy-han    时间: 2013-10-19 17:01:02

Eastern Suburbs



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Ellerslie

$705,250

$491

3.62%



Glen Innes

$616,389

$414

3.49%



Glendowie

$894,359

$548

3.19%



Kohimarama

$962,250

$685

3.70%



Meadowbank

$909,346

$563

3.22%



Mission Bay

$945,667

$599

3.29%



Mt Wellington

$514,677

$434

4.38%



Orakei

$1,098,000

$586

2.78%



Panmure

$582,938

$436

3.89%



Parnell

$894,265

$673

3.91%



Remuera

$1,171,791

$614

2.73%



St Heliers

$932,625

$646

3.60%



St Johns

$727,625

$533

3.81%


Franklin/Manukau Rural



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Pukekohe

$440,170

$359

4.25%



Tuakau

$379,163

$325

4.45%



Waiuku

$354,932

$340

4.98%


North Shore



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Albany

$646,656

$475

3.82%



Beach Haven

$562,284

$442

4.09%



Belmont - North Shore City

$759,000

$504

3.45%



Birkdale

$516,641

$434

4.37%



Birkenhead

$606,778

$501

4.29%



Browns Bay

$625,691

$503

4.18%



Devonport

$1,133,591

$594

2.73%



Forrest Hill

$717,904

$509

3.69%



Glenfield

$583,844

$448

3.99%



Greenhithe

$1,030,833

$538

2.71%



Mairangi Bay

$776,635

$525

3.52%



Milford

$997,618

$529

2.76%



Northcote - North Shore

$603,500

$451

3.88%



Rothesay Bay

$730,417

$547

3.90%



Sunnybrae

$649,530

$475

3.80%



Sunnynook

$676,269

$473

3.64%



Takapuna

$881,715

$615

3.62%



Torbay

$602,224

$505

4.36%


Pakuranga/Howick



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Beachlands

$683,071

$531

4.05%



Bucklands Beach

$688,800

$488

3.69%



Dannemora

$641,208

$525

4.26%



Halfmoon Bay - Manukau City

$693,406

$473

3.55%



Highland Park

$586,860

$446

3.95%



Howick

$651,306

$473

3.78%



Pakuranga

$606,250

$435

3.73%


Rodney



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Arkles Bay

$539,778

$457

4.40%



Army Bay

$559,100

$444

4.13%



Gulf Harbour

$634,500

$400

3.28%



Hatfields Beach

$445,750

$446

5.21%



Helensville

$447,063

$375

4.36%



Manly

$496,920

$432

4.52%



Orewa

$585,554

$444

3.94%



Red Beach

$564,600

$453

4.17%



Snells Beach

$442,125

$389

4.57%



Stanmore Bay

$515,635

$423

4.26%



Warkworth

$523,409

$415

4.12%



Wellsford

$282,000

$303

5.58%


South Auckland



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Alfriston

$1,001,375

$447

2.32%



Clendon Park

$286,050

$343

6.24%



Flat Bush

$666,289

$438

3.42%



Goodwood Heights

$486,722

$454

4.85%



Hillpark

$456,917

$390

4.44%



Mangere

$375,356

$375

5.19%



Mangere Bridge

$626,250

$393

3.26%



Manukau Central

$406,450

$388

4.96%



Manurewa

$333,344

$367

5.73%



Otahuhu

$400,955

$379

4.91%



Otara

$304,444

$369

6.30%



Papakura

$362,418

$358

5.13%



Papatoetoe

$433,466

$389

4.66%



Takanini

$392,723

$370

4.90%



Wattle Downs

$428,778

$417

5.06%



Weymouth

$315,594

$385

6.35%


West Auckland



Suburb

Average sale price (3 bdrm)

Average rent per week (3 bdrm)

Gross yield




Glen Eden

$448,008

$388

4.51%



Glendene

$477,375

$392

4.27%



Henderson

$464,801

$408

4.56%



Kelston

$453,042

$391

4.48%



Massey

$430,302

$393

4.75%



New Lynn

$483,976

$400

4.30%



Ranui

$367,688

$388

5.49%



Royal Heights

$457,800

$399

4.53%



Sunnyvale

$439,119

$398

4.72%



Te Atatu Peninsula

$609,773

$413

3.53%



Te Atatu South

$522,417

$402

4.01%



Titirangi

$588,325

$443

3.92%



West Harbour

$579,890

$438

3.93%
作者: carpentrynz    时间: 2013-10-19 19:18:26

ls好人
作者: 紫鹤    时间: 2013-10-19 21:43:38

icy-han 发表于 2013-10-19 17:01
Eastern Suburbs

非常感谢发布数据!~~~
作者: walker123    时间: 2013-12-13 22:15:57

中区。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
作者: 阿放    时间: 2013-12-13 23:51:50

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