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本帖最后由 Lease 于 2013-2-21 21:23 编辑
纽币的走势并不仅仅取决于NZ这个微型经济体。看看以下这个.
Fed Signals Possible Slowing of QE Amid Debate Over Risks
Bloomberg 21/02/2013
The Federal Reserve signaled it mayconsider slowing the pace of asset purchases as officialsextended a debate over whether record monetary easing risksunleashing inflation or fueling asset-price bubbles.
Several participants at the Federal Open Market Committee’sJan. 29-30 meeting “emphasized that the committee should beprepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in responseto changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of theefficacy and costs of such purchases evolved,” according to theminutes of the gathering released yesterday.
Stocks fell, along with oil and gold, on bets the centralbank will curb stimulus earlier than expected, even as severalFed officials warned against a premature end to $85 billion inmonthly bond buying. A gradual reduction in purchases may winthe FOMC’s support because it gives policy makers flexibility,said Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of AmericaCorp. in New York.
The minutes show “tapering is a likely outcome at somepoint in the future,” said Hanson, a former Fed economist. “Ifyou taper the purchases, it allows you to calibrate how themarket reacts to your actions without having to go coldturkey.”
Policy makers in December started debating when to haltbond buying that has pushed the Fed’s assets to more than $3trillion, prompting warnings by some officials that the programwill complicate an eventual withdrawal of stimulus.
‘Evenly Divided’
At the December meeting, Fed officials were “approximatelyevenly divided” between those favoring a mid-2013 end topurchases and those advocating a later date, according tominutes from the gathering. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pledgedto buy bonds until there’s a “substantial” improvement in alabor market burdened by 7.9 percent unemployment.
The minutes released yesterday didn’t indicate a discussionabout when to end quantitative easing.
“They’re changing the debate toward when to scale it downrather than debating the point where it suddenly ends,” saidJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economicsin Valhalla, New York. “With the economy looking more solidthan they feared a few months ago, financial-sector risks takeon more importance.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell more yesterday than inany trading session since November, declining 1.2 percent to1,511.95. The index is up 6 percent this year. The yield on the10-year Treasury note fell to 2.01 percent from 2.03 percent onFeb. 19.
Total Size
The FOMC at its January meeting decided to continue buying$45 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgagedebt without setting a limit on the duration or total size ofthe purchases. Policy makers also affirmed their pledge to keepthe target interest rate near zero “at least as long” asunemployment remains above 6.5 percent and inflation isprojected to be no more than 2.5 percent.
A number of officials said that their evaluation of costsand benefits of the policy “might well lead the Committee totaper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantialimprovement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred,”according to the minutes.
“Several others argued that the potential costs ofreducing or ending asset purchases too soon were alsosignificant, or that asset purchases should continue until asubstantial improvement in the labor-market outlook hadoccurred,” the minutes showed. The minutes don’t give the namesof officials or specify the precise number holding a given view.
New Ways
The minutes said that the committee would conduct a reviewof quantitative easing at the March 19-20 meeting. Fed officialsare also considering new ways to present economic projections intheir public communications. Many participants expressedinterest in using their quarterly projections to conveyinformation about future asset purchases and the Fed’s balancesheet.
With inflation below their long-term goal of 2 percent,policy makers are forging ahead with record accommodation tostoke an economy that shrank 0.1 percent last quarter. The Fedhas pushed the benchmark interest rate close to zero andexpanded its balance sheet to more than $3 trillion.
The minutes said “many participants” expressed concernabout “potential costs and risks arising from further assetpurchases.” Several discussed “possible complications” thatadditional purchases could have as the Fed begins to exit thepolicy, a few mentioned inflation risks, and some mentionedrisks to financial stability.
Capital Losses
“Several participants noted that a very large portfolio oflong-duration assets would, under certain circumstances, exposethe Federal Reserve to significant capital losses when theseholdings were unwound,” the minutes said. “Others pointed tooffsetting factors, and one noted that losses would not impedethe effective operation of monetary policy.”
Bernanke is waiting to see improvement in employment and isnot yet too concerned with the costs, former Minneapolis FedPresident Gary Stern said yesterday in a Bloomberg Radiointerview on “The Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays.
The Fed chairman and his “principal allies” remain“concerned about the economic outlook,” Stern said. |
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发表于 2013-2-20 23:53:22
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