20 march is coming (from www.predictweather.co.nz)

我的2010

20 March is coming THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24, 2011  
This article is a follow-on from the prediction of http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=334&type=home

please read this first if you haven't already
http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=338&type=home

We think this recent earthquake sequence has a timeline. It started last September and should finish after April. By June, the earthquake frequency in the region should be moving back to its normal non-threatening pattern.

19-20 March
"Perigee" means moon closest to earth for the month. We have seen the 4 September 7.1 event (new moon+second closest perigee) of 648 kilotons, followed by 7 October (new moon+perigee#6) which brought (8th) the next biggest event, two 4+ jolts around 6.30am totalling 96 metric tons. The following month, on 4-6 November, new moon in perigee brought on 7th at just before 3am, the next biggest aftershock of 118 tonnes. The next month? Perigee was 26-27 December, as perigeal new moon changed to perigeal full moon. On 26 December came the next biggest jolt since the last, a month ago; a 4.9mag king-hit of 346 tons. With 20 January's full moon+perigee, came the next biggest earthquake to hit Christchurch, a 5.1mag event.

It has meant that since September, every perigee has brought successive earthquakes that were the biggest since the last biggest, starting with new moons and swapping to full moons. With 6 successive monthly biggest events, equally spaced at 4-week intervals, all coming right on kingtide times, all hitting the Christchurch region, the pattern is obvious. And the next is the 20 March closest-perigee for the year, + full moon. The next (and last) powerful perigeal full moon is 18 April.

In 2009 the closest perigee for that year + full moon probably triggered the Te Anau earthquake. The closest perigee for 2010 was 30 January. Within the few days following came a 2.9 mag only 10 km north of Hanmer Springs 3kms deep, two 4.5-mag earthquakes in Hawkes Bay, and Fiordland received a mighty 5.1-mag shock 40 km west of Milford Sound that was felt throughout Fiordland and Otago. There were others too, within the week to follow, in Taupo, Manawatu and Bay of Plenty. These events of 2009 and 2010 can now be seen as an early signal that the South Island Alpine Fault region was coming into line for a rough sequence soon to follow.

That the moon+perigee are on the same day makes it even more gravitationally significant. Perigee always magnifies the gravitational pull of moon, especially when the moon is full. The moon will be 356577kms away on March 19, and this will be the closest it has come to Earth since 12 Dec 2008 and won't be as close again until 14 Nov 2016. The 19-21st of March will be a potent date for an extreme event.

Timing

19 March
Time: at 10am,

20 March
Time: at 11.30am

17 April
Time: at 3.30pm or midday or 6pm.

18 April
Time: at 4.30pm or 1pm or 8pm

Reason for the April dates: Full moon=18th, perigee (fourth closest for year)=17th, crossing equator=16th. This is the last potential date in the sequence. The interval has roughly the same potency as the February full moon period of 18th-25th. It does not mean a similar sized 6.3-mag will necessarily occur, but it does mean the killer is still loose on the streets, the one that strikes on full moons. We have not mentioned this date thus far in consideration of those traumatised even considering 20 March. But perhaps now is the time to keep this date in mind. It means that basic stocks and survival preparations should not be finally eased until after 19 April. If we all take precautions we are safer. If it doesn't occur then it doesn't really matter. It matters more if we are warned and do nothing.


Where for 19-21 March?
The Alpine Fault itself seems to be fairly inactive at the moment. Our pick for an epicentre, if a March earthquake should occur, is some geographical point between Hanmer and Amberley. Geonet should be asked where stresses are currently happening. It seems strange that so far no interviewer has sought to ask them. However, as we have said, it could be anywhere in NZ, or it may not even happen at all.

Whilst the timing can be calculated as we have done here, to the best of our ability, there are many wild cards. One is always the depth, even if one was to arrive on time. Recent earthquakes have been very shallow, within 10-12kms of the ground level, and these bring the most damage.  Let us hope nothing happens around 19-20 March or 18 April. Given the pattern between September and now, to not eventuate would break what is now, for Christchurch, a fairly solid 6-month-old and some might say highly predictable pattern. Given what we know, there is nothing to indicate to us why the pattern should not continue for at least one more month, and quite possibly two.

We repeat, it may not happen. We hope it won't. We are not always correct and no one has all the answers. We apologise if these do not occur and if anyone through reading this article endures undue stress and tension. That has certainly not been the intention. Better that there was warning and it didn't happen, than it catches a whole population by surprise and takes unnecessary lives that could have been saved if people were just slightly more mindful of being in a safe place around the risky days.

From a post on our Facebook page: If people realise you are just saying that it is possible a quake could occur (as a warning), then at least people can be prepared like my parents were for the week of 18 - 25th of Feb. I thank you again for your blog and tweets about that. My Mum skipped work that week - and luckily she is still here as a result....her work building and some colleagues aren't :- http://www.facebook.com/profile. ... 2523&sk=wall&v=wall

甘蔗

拧可信其有 不可信其无啊 ！！！！    留一手 总是好的 。。。。。

啤酒瓶子

草～～～还官方公布   让不让人活了～～

jounie

{:8_396:}{:8_396:}{:8_396:}

送你一枚钻戒

你可以把那个当做一个涨退潮的网站，钓鱼可以参考下，活命就不用管他了

焱小烫

你可以把那个当做一个涨退潮的网站，钓鱼可以参考下，活命就不用管他了
送你一枚钻戒 发表于 2011-2-26 09:06

太幽默了，受不鸟了。。。

nigapleas

恩。。。~~~还是安全第一。。。最好一手准备比较好~~~

starcub

都是受过高等教育的人了....
这样的谣言,在中国早被抓起来了...

无名の小菜花

恩。。。~~~还是安全第一。。。最好一手准备比较好~~~
nigapleas 发表于 2011-2-26 09:35

一定要注意安全   安全第一    = = ！

nigapleas

  一定要注意安全   安全第一    = = ！
无名の小菜花 发表于 2011-2-26 09:38

这么早？你是没睡还是刚起啊？？

失落的小白

3月20那天的課.在6樓哦.你們說我應該去上課麽- -