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本帖最后由 virus 于 2011-7-14 22:46 编辑
个人认为有几个原因，一是本周NZ出炉的数据比想象中的好，经济增长GDP比预期要高2倍多，预期是0.2%增长，本周数据是增长0.5%。二是大量first home buyer融入市场，房价的上涨和销量稳中有升。三是居民消费幅度上涨。以上是促进纽币涨幅的好因素。（good facts）
还有bad facts也会使纽币上涨，一是澳洲经济涨幅放慢，二是欧洲主权债务危机加重，三是美国经济数据很糟糕，市场恐惧美联邦储蓄再大量印新钞。
投资者其实都是想避开风险的，所以澳元降温，欧元重挫，美金贬值，那只有纽币看着风险微低。一个货币的涨幅证明有大量购入。 今天纽币对澳元创8个月新高。对美金仍然维持在0.85以上。周二对欧元创5年半新高。
我以前在我一个发新西兰统计局数据的帖子里写着，纽币以前对美金的0.65，将是现在的0.75（帖子被删了，老帖了。）
按照纽币的势头，和世界杯的来临，纽币在短期内不会跌。年底（最晚2012年初），新西兰储备银行将收紧货币政策，也就是说要涨OCR，那也就意味着纽币将升值。毫无疑问。
如果在世界杯开始前（9月中），纽币不下跌的话，要汇钱的就汇了（大陆往新西兰汇），没必要等了，因为往后也没什么机会了。除非RMB暴涨，我对目前大陆过热的经济不报太大希望，中国GDP里面20%是由房地产贡献的，也就是房地产一旦泡泡爆了，GDP就没了20%，这个比较恐怖。
新西兰国家小，什么事情都多多少少有影响到它，但是国情很稳定，没有高起高落，好也好不到哪去，坏也坏不到哪去。这就是为什么这么多人喜欢来新西兰投资的原因，其中也是因为制度很健全。
个人观点，我也不是很懂 呵呵
Electronic Card Transactions: June 2011 key facts:
Changes in the value of transactions (compared with May 2011) were as
follows:
Total electronic card transactions were up (0.8 percent).
Transactions in the retail industries were up (1.2 percent).
Transactions in the core retail industries were up (2.1 percent).
The durables and consumables industries had the largest increases.
Fuel had the largest decrease.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) value of transactions in the core
retail series was up 8.6 percent from June 2010.
Food Price Index: June 2011 highlights:
In June 2011 compared with May 2011:
Food prices rose 1.4 percent.
Fruit and vegetable prices rose 12.2 percent.
Grocery food prices rose 0.7 percent.
Restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.5 percent.
Non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 0.2 percent.
Meat, poultry, and fish prices fell 3.2 percent.
From June 2010 to June 2011:
Food prices increased 7.5 percent. This includes a 2.2 percent rise
in food prices in October 2010, when the rate of goods and services
tax (GST) rose from 12.5 to 15 percent.
Gross Domestic Product: March 2011 quarter highlights:
Gross domestic product (GDP):
Economic activity was up 0.8 percent in the March 2011 quarter.
The largest increase was in manufacturing (up 3.6 percent).
Real estate and business services (up 1.0 percent) and wholesale
trade (up 1.5 percent) also increased.
For the year ended March 2011 gross domestic product increased 1.5
percent. |
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An optimist sees apportunlities in problem while pessimist sees problem in opportunities
发表于 2011-7-14 12:43:44
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