穷爸爸富爸爸作者最近说的话

unamed

Why The Rich Love RECESSIONS

The Rich Don’t Love Recessions Because They’re Optimistic.
They Love Them Because They Understand the Math.

Recessions don’t happen because people suddenly lose confidence.

They happen when leverage outruns cash flow — and reality finally forces a repricing.

That repricing doesn’t hit everyone equally.

It never has.

Here’s the sequence, and it’s structural — not political:

-  During expansions, leverage is rewarded.
-  Cheap money flows everywhere.
-  Risk is ignored.
-  Optimism is financed with debt.

During contractions, leverage is sorted.

Households with variable income and fixed costs break first.
Think mortgages, car loans, credit cards.

Then businesses dependent on cheap capital follow.
Then banks tighten.
Then governments respond — last — with money printing.

This order is not an accident.

It’s how the system is built.

When recessions hit, three things happen every single time:

• Asset prices fall faster than liabilities
• Forced sellers appear
• Liquidity concentrates upward

This is why downturns widen inequality — even when governments claim to be “protecting the middle class.”

In 2008, housing didn’t really fail.

It changed hands.

U.S. home prices fell roughly 30% nationally from peak to trough.
More than 6 million homes went through foreclosure between 2007 and 2014.

Most people saw devastation.

I saw math.

Banks were drowning in bad loans.
They needed buyers.
They needed liquidity.

So I did what my rich dad taught me decades earlier.

I didn’t save cash.
I didn’t wait for certainty.
I used debt to buy assets with cash flow.

While people were dumping houses, I was buying them — often with other people’s money — at fractions of replacement cost.

Not because I was brave.

Because the numbers finally made sense.

-  Rents didn’t fall like prices did.
-  Debt was cheap.
-  Assets were discounted.

That’s what recessions do.

They don’t destroy wealth.
They reprice it.

The same thing happened in 2020.

Small businesses didn’t all “die.”
They consolidated.

Large firms with access to capital survived.
Those without it disappeared or got absorbed.

That’s why recessions feel unfair.

Because they are.

They don’t reward optimism.
They reward balance sheets.

They punish people who confuse leverage with wealth.
They punish growth financed by hope instead of cash flow.

The wealthy don’t love recessions emotionally.

They love them mechanically.

Because volatility compresses timelines.

What might take 10 years in a normal market happens in 18 months during a downturn.

And compressed timelines favor prepared capital.

This is the real divide in every crisis:

Not optimism vs pessimism.
Not left vs right.

Liquidity vs dependency.

People dependent on wages, cheap credit, and stable prices panic.

People with liquidity, cash flow, and access to capital go shopping.

That’s why my advice has never changed:

Don’t wait for recessions to “end.”
Prepare for them before they arrive.

Because when the next one hits — and it always does —
it won’t be a surprise to the rich.

It will be an opportunity.

The question isn’t whether a recession comes.

The question is simple:

When assets go on sale… will you be forced to sell — or positioned to buy?

大家最近买房了吗？还是还在等谷底呢？

paulwood

剑客浪心 发表于 2025-12-27 20:14
刚看了ONE ROOF 统计报告，西区的MORTGAGEE FREE 率才20-21%，全国倒数有名，工薪阶层低价房区吧，居然还 ...

是的，只有光头党满街走，地震不断，在充冲积平原的一盘散沙上的基督城才符合高华的要求，肯定全市平均房价不但超过奥克兰西区，还能超过皇后镇。

补充内容 (2025-12-27 22:30):
想想能和剑客这种好人做邻居，久久不能入眠。

剑客浪心

屎盖大耗子 发表于 2025-12-27 19:52
最重要的是西区治安差，地势也差，大凹盆地，潮湿容易积水，从风水上讲也不符合华人要求 ...

刚看了ONE ROOF 统计报告，西区的MORTGAGEE FREE 率才20-21%，全国倒数有名，工薪阶层低价房区吧，居然还有这样高的杠杆。。。。。简直是SHOCKING。 估计这一波下跌，西区会被砸出翔

paulwood

罗伯特·托鲁·清崎（Robert Toru Kiyosaki，1947年4月8日出生）是一位美国商人兼作家，以其个人理财书籍《富爸爸穷爸爸》系列而闻名。他创立了富爸爸公司（Rich Dad Company），该公司通过书籍和视频提供个人理财和商业教育；他还创立了Rich Global LLC，该公司于2012年申请破产。

他提倡利用他所谓的“良性债务”作为杠杆来购买房地产等金融资产。[ 28 ] [需要核实] 2024年1月，清崎表示他负债超过10亿美元。[ 29 ] [ 30 ]此外，他大力倡导购买黄金和白银，经常称它们为“上帝的货币”。[ 31 ] [需要完整引用] 2025年5月，清崎重申了他对加密货币的支持，他在X（前身为Twitter）上写道，即使持有0.01个比特币，也可能在两年内“让你变得非常富有”。[ 32 ] [ 33 ] 2006年和2007年，清崎的“富爸爸”研讨会继续宣传房地产是一种稳健的投资，就在房地产价格暴跌之前。

2010年，加拿大广播公司（ CBC）的《市场》（Marketplace）节目播出了一部纪录片，揭露了清崎的公司在加拿大以“富爸爸”研讨会为幌子进行的诈骗活动。[ 3 ] [需要完整引用]研讨会讲师声称投资拖车和拖车公园是成功的证据，但调查发现这些投资实际上是荒地和闲置土地。

屎盖大耗子

剑客浪心 发表于 2025-12-27 17:18
这个周期已经告诉我们，新西兰房价开始南升北降。

奥克兰本身就因为上个周期上涨太猛，会进入漫长的调整 ...

最重要的是西区治安差，地势也差，大凹盆地，潮湿容易积水，从风水上讲也不符合华人要求

剑客浪心

jli044 发表于 2025-12-27 09:36
弱弱的帮朋友问一下，西区的战斗机，1200平大地也不行了？
重点：买的早，没贷款 ...

这个周期已经告诉我们，新西兰房价开始南升北降。

奥克兰本身就因为上个周期上涨太猛，会进入漫长的调整。只有富豪区才能有涨幅。 奥克兰西区作为一无学区，二无有钱人的工薪区，将是被资本抛弃的重灾区。

剑客浪心

jli044 发表于 2025-12-27 09:36
弱弱的帮朋友问一下，西区的战斗机，1200平大地也不行了？
重点：买的早，没贷款 ...

怕是要跌回2008-2009

jli044

unamed 发表于 2025-12-27 13:52
你真损哈哈哈

帮朋友问的，他就靠这个鄙视21年买房的人了，如果不行了，怕他受不了

unamed

jli044 发表于 2025-12-27 09:36
弱弱的帮朋友问一下，西区的战斗机，1200平大地也不行了？
重点：买的早，没贷款

你真损哈哈哈

jli044

剑客浪心 发表于 2025-12-26 21:38
大地大房的投资者又要经历一轮新的抛售潮了，地税，保险和利率上涨敏感

弱弱的帮朋友问一下，西区的战斗机，1200平大地也不行了？
重点：买的早，没贷款

unamed

剑客浪心 发表于 2025-12-26 21:38
大地大房的投资者又要经历一轮新的抛售潮了，地税，保险和利率上涨敏感

一般的大地是没啥戏了，现在看PC120之后那些大地是apartment zone，那些才有些潜力。

剑客浪心

大地大房的投资者又要经历一轮新的抛售潮了，地税，保险和利率上涨敏感