Kieran Trass在CPIA说房产2年后必涨。。。发出来给大伙参考一下。

virus

（不知道有没有发对版块，不对的话请老麦挪一下;lol;）

如题


虽说我很敬佩Kieran Trass，看过他很多书，而且他每次都这么准，但我不认为这次他是对的。我认为房产在3年里面基本FLAT

前几天他在canterbury property investors association演讲说，我们2009年那次recovery是false的，recovery还没有到，那次信了，但这次他说2年内必涨，我根本看不出来，依据是什么？！在他的THE HOUSING BUBBLE这本书里面提到的PROPERTY CYCLE Key Drivers and Market Influencers，我看目前依据新西兰统计局的数据都是很惨。

Key Drivers

# Net Migration
# Employment
# Property Construction (Dwelling Consents)
# Number of People Per Household
# Rents
# Incomes
# Gross Domestic Product
# Property Values
# Property Affordability
# Number of Days to Sell Property
# Property Sales Volumes

Market Influencers

# Inflation
# Mortgage Interest Rates

他说现在我们在7点-8点钟方向，我觉得6点也就差不多了，估计还不一定到6点。

以下是新西兰房产历史给我们的资料：

In 2002!
√ The property boom would start in 2002
√ This would be the biggest boom in 20 years!

In 2003!
√ Rumours of the boom ending would prove incorrect
√ Spring would bring rapid & high capital growth
√ The loss of the Americas cup in 2003 would have no negative impact on Auckland property values.

In 2004!
√ Pre-tax cash flow from the ‘minor dwelling’ strategy
√ Rumours of a crash in 2004 would prove incorrect
√ Would be a BIG mistake to cash up property to wait for a crash


In 2005!
√ Ongoing rumours of a crash would still prove incorrect
√ That Aucklands CBD apartment market would seriously suffer as a result of a massive oversupply that would last years.

In 2006!
√ The emergence of the 'Shaky' building syndrome and it's impacts
√ Property would still boom until early 2007

In 2008!
√ A property crash NOW inevitable

In 2009!
√ The year of the False Recovery (Bounce back effect)

总体而且，个人认为现在买房产不会错，上个月REINZ出来的数据表明目前新西兰房产销售量居10年以来最低点（只是residential不是commercial），但是市场表面是稍微有回暖迹象，因为震后库存少的可怜，个人认为这是个false的bounce，不足以说明房产在回暖。

还是那句话，be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful！

我目前只相信一句话：today is the day when people build their real estate empire！

Sportfishing

现在这个得看区域了。呵呵

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Building Consents Issued: March 2011 highlights:

     The trend for the number of new dwellings authorised, including
     apartments, has fallen steadily since April 2010, to the lowest level
     since the series began in 1982.
     The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised, including
     apartments, rose 2.2 percent in March, following a 9.8 percent fall
     in February and other large changes in recent months.
     40 new apartment units and 1,047 other dwellings were authorised.
     The unadjusted value of residential building consents fell $108
     million (20 percent), while non-residential building consents fell $1
     million (0.2 percent), compared with March 2010.

virus

Quarterly Employment Survey: March 2011 quarter highlights:

For the March 2011 year:

     Number of full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) remained steady at
     1.32 million.
     Average total hourly earnings increased 2.6 percent.
     Seasonally adjusted total paid hours increased 2.0 percent.
     Seasonally adjusted total gross earnings increased 4.6 percent.

泡椒猴头_

20年后都不一定能买得起