等了3天尽然没人发这一贴，那我就带上来了！个人觉得挺有影响！

virus

个人觉得很有影响意义，是好事，还是坏事，仁者见仁智者见智哈

附上GOOGLE 翻译，凑合看吧 懒得翻译，能看原文最好了，呵呵

引用：http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/084ae2cf/economists-predict-4-population-drop-for-christchurch.html

Monday 14th March 2011

Economists predict 4% population drop for Christchurch

Christchurch may lose 4% of its population over the coming year, according to ANZ Bank economists.
"Following the February 22 earthquake, it is inevitable that some residents will decide to leave permanently," they said today in a market focus report.
"We estimate that Christchurch could possibly lose up to 4% of its population permanently in the first year, via emigration to elsewhere in the country or overseas, and a reduction in immigration, if overseas patterns are followed".

The economists also warned that migration into Christchurch from other parts of Canterbury over recent decades could also easily reverse "and we could see larger outflows".

The response of the Government and business sector, and attitudes towards people living in Christchurch, would be critical.

The economists said there were reports that as many as 65,000 Christchurch residents - or 17% of the city population - had left the city following the February 22 earthquake, which is thought to have killed about 180 people.

"The big question is how many will decide not to return at all and what it will do to future migration trends?" the economists said. "And for those that decide not to return, where will they choose to settle?"

The extended aftershocks in Christchurch were boosting the psychological impact on residents in the city, which had a population of 380,000 before the initial September quake.

Over the past decade, the city had gained about 1100 people a year through domestic migration, and about 1600 through international migration.
If the permanent loss of people to NZ or overseas was similar to the 2.5% seen in Japan's 1995 Kobe earthquake, then 9500 people would quit the city.
But it was less clear what effect there would be on inflows of people from within New Zealand and overseas, which previously accounted for 3.5% of the population in any given year .

Of the previous 7500 permanent arrivals from overseas each year, "it is possible that we could see a halving of that in the near-term," the economists said. "In fact this seems somewhat optimistic".

There were also likely to be fewer people going to Christchurch from its main domestic sources of "immigrants", Dunedin and Wellington.

Among the people quitting Christchurch, most would normally head to Wellington with central Auckland attracting the second highest share, and Dunedin coming in third.
"However, relocating from one quake prone area to another does not pass the smell test, so we suspect you can rule out Wellington as a beneficiary," the economists said. "It would seem that Auckland and Dunedin will see the most migration out from Christchurch - at least for those people who still seek to stay in New Zealand". Auckland could see increased pressure on its housing shortage.

Areas around Christchurch periphery - Timaru, Ashburton, Blenheim, Greymouth and part of the wider Canterbury area - were also likely to reverse their previous population drift to Christchurch.

"All up, we think it is possible that Christchurch City could see a loss of around 15,000 residents in the first year, equivalent to almost 4% of the population," the economists said. This included 9500 residents deciding to leave permanently, 4000 fewer migrants from overseas than otherwise would be the case in the absence of the earthquake, and 1500 fewer internal migrants.

These estimates assumed Christchurch's port, universities and airport remained dominant players in the South Island economy: if any of them failed the "depopulation fallout" was likely to be significantly greater.

Slower growth in the city meant that Christchurch's population would be around 25,000 lower than expected by 2031, with implications for the amount of infrastructure, services and amenities that would be required.

=========================================

经济学家预测4％基督城人口下降

星期一2011年3月14号1条评论
文字太小了？

基督城可能会失去其对4％的人口在未来一年，根据澳新银行的经济学家。

“继2月22日的地震，这是不可避免的，一些居民将永久地决定离开，”他们说今天在一份报告市场关注的焦点。

“我们估计可能基督城可以永久地失去了在第一年的4％的人口，通过移民在国内或海外，并在其他地方的移民减少，如果海外模式是遵循”。

经济学家还警告说，从其他地区的坎特伯雷在最近数十年间迁移到基督城也容易倒“，我们可以看到更大的外流。”

政府和商业部门的反应，和对人生活在Christchurch的态度，将是关键。

经济学家说，有报道说，多达65,000基督城居民报告 - 或17％人口的城市 - 已经离开市继2月22日的地震，这被认为有大约180人死亡。

“最大的问题是有多少将决定不回去的话它会做什么对未来的移民趋势？”经济学家说。 “而对于那些决定不回来，他们选择在哪里定居？”

在基督城的扩展余震推动在城市，这已初步九月地震前的38万人口的居民的心理影响。

在过去的十年中，全市已获得约1100人一年通过国内迁移，约1600通过国际移徙。

如果再加上有新西兰永久损失或海外类似的2.5％，日本1995年阪神大地震看，然后有9500人将退出城市。

但这是不太清楚会有什么样的影响对人们流入在新西兰和海外，而此前的3.5％的人口​​占任何一年。

以前的每年7500来自海外的永久移民，“这是可能的，我们可以看到，近期一组减半”的经济学家说。 “事实上，这似乎有点乐观”。

也有可能去的人少其国内的主要来源，基督城的“移民”，达尼丁和惠灵顿。

基督城在戒烟的人，最通常的头与中央奥克兰到惠灵顿，吸引第二高的份额，并在第三达尼丁未来。

“不过，搬迁一个地震多发区从另一个没有通过嗅觉测试，所以我们怀疑你可以排除作为受益人惠灵顿，”经济学家说。 “这似乎奥克兰和基督城达尼丁将看到最迁移出来 - 至少为这些人谁仍然寻求在新西兰逗留。”奥克兰可以看到增加了住房短缺的压力。

围绕周边地区基督城 - 蒂马鲁，阿什伯顿，布伦海姆，格雷茅斯和广大坎特伯雷地区的部分 - 也有可能改变他们以往的人口漂流到基督城。

“所有的，我们认为这是可能的基督城城市可以看到，在第一年亏损约15,000居民，几乎相当于4％的人口，”经济学家说。这包括9500永久居民决定离开，来自海外的移民比4000少，否则将是这次地震的缺席的情况下，国内移民和1500少。

这些估计假定基督城的港口，大学和机场保持在南岛经济的主导球员：如果他们中任何失败的“人口减少后遗症”很可能将大大提高。

城市增长的放缓，意味着基督城的人口将低于预期约25,000与2031年的基础设施，服务和设施将需要数量的影响。

Luckt_2006

砖家预测的刀未来么？

混口饭

这个嘛。。。做生意的人心里肯定都知道这些影响所以也就不用说了，不做生意的也不在乎这些所以也不会去关心它。

Devourment

等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴等了3天尽然没人发这一贴





有种“哥笑而不语看尽非权即贵“的味道……

mystar

仁者见仁。。。。。

vassell

等了三天怎么不好好翻译翻译

MaxPower

等了三天怎么不好好翻译翻译
vassell 发表于 2011-3-17 10:10 PM

应该是翻译了三天

hellwoman

那以后的移民是申请啊是申请啊 是申请啊？

aimeily

这个早听说了~~~第一个星期就有4万人离开了CHCH,上星期估计有6.5万人离开~~机场每班机都是满满的~